Who Will Win Tour De Ski?

by Ingeborg Scheve • 27.12.2021
ProXCskiing.com analyzed the start lists and looked at previous Tour de Ski results: These are the favorites and outsiders to the brutal stage race.

What have we seen from the entered Tour de Ski racers so far this season? Let’s get into the nuts and bolts.

Tour de Ski 2021/22 starts in Lenzerheide, Switzerland, on December 28 and ends in Val di Fiemme, Italy, on January 4. The race consists of six stages in eight days. Here are all the Tour de Ski details and the day-by-day schedule

The upcoming Tour de Ski is the 16th edition of the brutal stage race. These are the winners from the previous 15 Tour de Ski events

The overall winners get 400 World Cup points for the Tour de Ski, which consists of six stages in eight days. Stage winners get 50 World Cup points. Accordingly, there are potentially 700 World Cup points for winning every stage of the Tour de Ski, which would determine the overall World Cup for the season.

Olympic qualifier
Several of the Tour de Ski competitors are trying to nail down tickets to the upcoming Olympics during Tour de Ski. For instance, Norway and Sweden each have four spots to fill after their first Olympic selections last week.  

Particularly the first two days of the Tour de Ski are crucial for those vying for the Olympics. The Tour opens with a skate sprint on Tuesday, December 28, and continues with 10km/15km classic technique distance races the following day both in Lenzerheide, Switzerland.

However, quite a few of the athletes who are already selected for the Olympics will not race the Tour de Ski, but choose to prepare for the Olympics in other ways. At the same time, several pre-qualified skiers will use Tour de Ski as part of their peaking plan for the Winter Games.   

How the Tour has played out prior to major championships
Prior to the 2021 World Championships last winter, Jessie Diggins (USA) and Alexander Bolshunov (RUS) won Tour de Ski. 

However, the 2021 Tour de Ski may not be representative for this season’s outcome. Last season, several of the presumed strongest competitors did not participate due to the covid-19 situation. Regardless, both of the Tour de Ski winners proved to be highly competitive at the 2021 World Championships later in the season, and also won the overall World Cup. 

The previous year, the non-championship season 2019/20, Bolshunov won his first Tour de Ski, while Therese Johaug (NOR) won the stage race for the third time. And prior to the 2018 Olympics in South Korea, Dario Cologna (SUI) and Heidi Weng (NOR) won Tour de Ski. 

So, who will win Tour de Ski 2022?
Given the current start lists and the fact that several strong skiers are missing from this year’s Tour de Ski, ProXCskiing.com has considered the various factors, recent and past performances and dusted off the crystal ball.  

Men
There is no getting around that the defending Tour de Ski champion Alexander Bolshunov’s performance has been all over the map this season. The 24-year-old Russian (turning 25 during Tour de Ski) had a rough leadup to the season, with a seemingly endless series of injuries and illness. Bolshunov is unsure about his fitness and what to expect at Tour de Ski. 

Nevertheless, Bolshunov currently sist sin third place overall in the World Cup. As long as he sticks out the whole Tour, ProXCskiing.com expects that Bolshunov will be on the overall Tour de Ski podium. 

Among the Tour participants who routinely deliver World Cup podiums and victories is Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (NOR). He won Tour de Ski in 2019, but was beat by both Bolshunov and Sergey Ustiugov (RUS) in 2020. 

Klæbo didn’t race the 2021 Tour de Ski, but is currently leading the overall World Cup. And there is hardly anything that makes Klæbo smile wider than beating Bolshunov. ProXCskiing.com considers Klæbo a clear favorite to the overall Tour de Ski title this year. 

Additionally, Simen Hegstad Krüger (NOR) has posted several strong results this season, and comes into the Tour as a strong contender to Klæbo and Bolshunov. If he is anything close to as fit as he was in Davos before Christmas, it will be hard to keep Hegstad Krüger off the podium. 

Among the outsiders, Sjur Røthe and Emil Iversen of Norway, Alexey Chervotkin and of Russia are skiers to keep an eye on.  

There are also several athletes vying for individual stage victories, including up-and-coming Alexander Terentev of Russia and Italian veteran Federico Pellegrino. 

Top 3 men Tour de Ski 
1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo, Norway
2. Alexander Bolshunov, Russia 
3. Simen Hegstad Krüger, Norway

Women
Maja Dahlqvist of Sweden is the current overall World Cup leader. But Dahlqvist is not racing Tour de Ski. Neither is Therese Johaug, who sits in third place in the overall World Cup. That makes Frida Karlsson of Sweden, who is currently in second place overall, the obvious favorite to win Tour de Ski this season. 

Karlsson is a solid distance racer and lightning fast in sprints on good days. She recently announced that she would love to race the team sprint at the Olympics with her buddy Dahlqvist, so there is every reason to believe that Karlsson is working hard on her sprint skills these days. 

Karlsson’s top challengers are Rosie Brennan and Jessie Diggins. The two Americans are currently fourth and fifth, respectively, in the overall World Cup. And like Karlsson, they handle both distance races and sprints. Diggins won the 2021 Tour de Ski as well as the 2021 overall World Cup, and could easily be capable of a repeat at the 2022 Tour de Ski. 

Then there are always the outsiders. ProXCskiing.com won’t rule out that Heidi Weng will make a return to the overall Tour de Ski podium this year. Yulia Stupak (RUS) and Ebba Andersson (SWE) who were second and third in the 2021 Tour de Ski certainly haven’t scared anyone on the course this season. But both have qualities that could make them competitive for individual stages. 

Top 3 women Tour de Ski 
1. Frida Karlsson, Sweden
2. Jessie Diggins, USA 
3. Rosie Brennan, USA

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